Outlook and Catalysts

Intuitive Machines, Inc. / Outlook and Catalysts

Report section 11.0

Outlook and Catalysts

Last edited October 26, 2026 by PE_crafterContributors: thespacecpa, PE_crafterSign in to editRequest access

11.1 Upcoming Awards (Catalysts & Milestones)

The table below is a forward-looking pipeline of awards Intuitive Machines is expected to be pursuing, assembled by matching upcoming government and commercial opportunities against the full complement of the company’s products and services. Some entries reflect intentions management has stated directly on earnings calls; others are opportunities that, in this analysis, are a strong strategic fit for the company’s capabilities even where a bid has not been publicly confirmed. Inclusion is not a prediction that Intuitive Machines will win any given award only that it is well positioned to compete, with a reasonable probability of being in contention.

Contract / Award NameExpected DateDescription
Commercial Lunar Payload Services (“CLPS”) 1.0 Task OrdersJul – Dec 2026
(Monthly)
An estimated ~7 task orders remain to be competed under CLPS 1.0. Next solicitations previewed in a June 2026 press release: a second science manifest, a power/avionics demo lander, and a South Pole optical imager. New awards announced at NASA’s monthly Moon Base updates.
Customer Order for 2 Additional SatellitesAug 2026Management disclosed on the Q1 earnings call that IM holds authority to proceed on the build of two satellites for an undisclosed customer while final negotiations conclude. Effectively won; converts to backlog at contract signature. Confirmation likely in Q2 earnings call.
Commercial Lunar Payload Services (“CLPS”) 2.0 Task Orders

“Sep 2026”

Delayed to Nov 2026

NASA’s $6B follow-on contract to CLPS 1.0 for heavier next-generation cargo landers beyond 2028, with payload classes growing to 5 MT (Phase 2) and 8 MT (Phase 3). Structured as a multi-award IDIQ, a seat carries no dollars but is required to bid all future task orders. Final RFP released May 15, 2026; proposals were due June 30, with awards expected by September 1 (end of GFY26).
Project NEXUS Phase I (TDRSS)

Sep 2026

NEXUS seeks a commercial Ka-band satellite relay to take over from the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS), which NASA is winding down as new missions migrate to commercial alternatives. The agency has flagged a continuity risk late this decade as the remaining TDRS satellites age out a particular problem for legacy spacecraft that depend on the system, including Hubble and the ISS. Multiple firm-fixed-price Phase I concept awards are expected September 2026, with a down-select in early 2027. Note management named “TDRSS-related opportunities” as an active production-line investment on the Q1 earnings call.
Space Force Andromeda SG-XXFall 2026Space Systems Command’s $6.24B, 10-year multi-award IDIQ (awarded April 2026, 14 companies selected from 32 bids) to field next-generation space domain awareness satellites in geosynchronous orbit replacing GSSAP, the aging ‘neighborhood watch’ inspectors that monitor other nations’ GEO satellites. The vehicle covers two constellations: RG-XX for reconnaissance and SG-XX for surveillance, the latter added when the Space Force raised the ceiling by $4.4B in May 2026 citing the post-2030 threat environment.
CP-32 Commercial Lunar Payload Services (“CLPS”) – DIMPLEH2 2026A delivery task order for the SwRI-led DIMPLE instrument suite and rover to the Ina volcanic feature, to date recent lunar volcanism. Listed as an active planned procurement in NASA’s March 2026 Ignition materials, with a draft task plan to vendors expected mid-June 2026; originally slated for a 2024 task order, so timing has slipped before.
Orbital Transfer Vehicle “Nebula” Phase III – Full-scale Development & FlightH2 2026Management disclosed on the Q1 earnings call that IM’s Nebula orbital transfer vehicle has passed Critical Design Review with its undisclosed national-security customer and is awaiting a Phase III award covering full-scale development and flight. Nebula is a Nova-C-derived, high-thrust cryogenic stage capable of reaching orbits out to 2M km, with management expecting multiple production copies to support GEO and cislunar operations. The prior Phase II award ($9.8M, July 2025) funded the program through CDR; Phase III has not been formalized outside the earnings call.
Earth Re-entry Vehicle “Zephyr” Phase II GrantH2 2026Zephyr is IM’s Earth reentry vehicle, designed to bring cargo and space-manufactured products back from orbit. Pending a successful Critical Design Review (expected mid-2026, not yet confirmed), a Phase II grant from the Texas Space Commission would fund the build of a flight prototype. Small dollars, but it opens the cargo-return market NASA’s Moon Base plan calls for: a return demo in Moon Base Phase 2 and a 500 kg return goal in Moon Base Phase 3.
AFRL AMAC – $10B S&T Multiple Award IDIQLate 2026An 8-year, $10B-ceiling IDIQ streamlining how AFRL buys science-and-technology research services across four technical areas (air, space, cyberspace/EW, cross-cutting). Proposals were due February 27, 2026, with awards expected this year to “each and all qualifying offerors.” Structurally like SHIELD or Andromeda: a seat conveys no revenue, just the right to bid task orders. Note IM is an active AFRL Space Vehicles Directorate performer (JETSON nuclear power, the $8.2M RPS extension, related OTV work); its bid is unconfirmed.
Moon Base ‘Survive the Night’ – RHU / Night-Survival Demonstrations2026/2027NASA’s Moon Base Phase 1 priority of keeping hardware alive through the ~14-day lunar night. No night-survival solicitation or award exists yet; radioisotope heater unit (RHU) and hibernation-point demos are expected to be bought via the power/avionics demo lander task order or the Moon Base Capabilities RFP stream in late 2026–2027. Note IM holds a ~$2.4M share of the 2023 $15M NASA Tipping Point award to the Zeno Power-led team (Am-241 Stirling generator; FDR passed April 2026, 2027 demo target)
Space Force Andromeda RG-XX2027Space Systems Command’s $6.24B, 10-year multi-award IDIQ (awarded April 2026, 14 companies selected from 32 bids) to field next-generation space domain awareness satellites in geosynchronous orbit replacing GSSAP, the aging ‘neighborhood watch’ inspectors that monitor other nations’ GEO satellites. The vehicle covers two constellations: RG-XX for reconnaissance and SG-XX for surveillance, the latter added when the Space Force raised the ceiling by $4.4B in May 2026 citing the post-2030 threat environment.
Lunar Terrain Vehicle (“LTV”) Phase IILate 2027NASA plans an on-ramp RFP in 2027 to widen the vendor pool for Phase 2 LTVs, with task-order competitions expected every 18–24 months as Moon Base mobility needs grow across exploration, site preparation, and logistics. IM retains its rover industrial team (Boeing, Michelin, Northrop, AVL), $30M of NASA-funded feasibility work, and the unique ability to self-deliver rovers on its own landers but faces incumbents with a two-year head start.
NextSTEP-3 Appendix B – Moon Base DemonstrationsTBDNextSTEP-3 Appendix B is NASA’s Multiple Award Task Order Contract for industry-led Moon Base Demonstrations. The purpose is to acquire prototype demonstrations and special topic efforts that address critical architecture gaps identified for the lunar Moon Base. Awards will focus on the integration, demonstration, and maturation of concepts that have progressed beyond early component technology development. Note IM won the predecessor Appendix R lunar logistics study.
NextSTEP-3 Appendix C – CIS Capability Studies IVTBDNASA Goddard’s fourth round of Communications and Intelligent Systems (CIS) capability studies, covering lunar ‘trunkline’ and Mars end-to-end communication architectures the study groundwork for how NASA will buy Moon-to-Mars network services. Award amounts are estimated at $1.7M per study. Note IM won the predecessor CIS III study.
MDA SHIELD Task Orders (Golden Dome)TBD
(Rolling)
SHIELD (Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense): MDA’s $151B-ceiling multiple-award IDIQ, the primary contracting engine for Golden Dome. Seats awarded in mass tranches (1,014 on Dec 2, 2025; 1,086 more after), a seat conveys no revenue; all economics flow through task orders across sensors, interceptors, C2 integration, and the space layer. Both IM and Lanteris were reportedly awarded seats, making them eligible to bid on task orders.
Lunar Reactor-1 (“LR-1”) / Fission Surface Power (100 kWe)TBDNASA/DOE flagship to land LR-1, a 100 kWe fission power station, on the Moon in 2030 — the first reactor on the lunar surface. Contracting details pending NASA’s new Space Reactor Office was directed (May 22, 2026) to deliver an integrated SR-1/LR-1 program plan, including contracting strategy, within 60 days — i.e., by late July 2026. Note IM with X-Energy holds one of three $5M design contracts from 2022, a qualification credential.

11.2 Upcoming Technical Milestones

YearMilestone
2026Earth Re-entry Vehicle “Zephyr” — Critical Design Review
2026Nebula Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) — Critical Design Review
2026Goonhilly Acquisition — Close
2027CP-11 CLPS — IM-3 Mission
2027Deployment of Lunar Relay Satellite “Altus 1” (NSNS)
2027Successful Activation of Altus 1
2027Zephyr — Phase II flight-prototype build
2027CP-22 CLPS — IM-4 mission
2027Deployment of Lunar Relay Satellites “Altus 2” & “Altus 3” (NSNS)
2028Successful Activation of Altus 2 & Altus 3
2028CS-8 CLPS — IM-6 mission
2028Deployment of Lunar Relay Satellites “Altus 4” & “Altus 5” (NSNS)
2028Successful Activation of Altus 4 & Altus 5
2028SR-1 Freedom (Space Reactor-1)
2030Development of Nova-D
2030CT-4 CLPS — IM-5 Mission